The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), has expressed confidence that contrary to belief in certain quarters Nigeria would witness economic growth in 2024.
The policy group expressed the confidence in a statement signed by its Chairman, Mr Niyi Akinsiju, in Abuja on Tuesday.
Akinsiju said the group projected that the growth would be driven by the non-oil sector and expansion in the financial sector as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), continues to control inflation rate and stabilise the foreign exchange rate.
He said that the group’s position was based on a careful study of the last quarter of 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Akinsiju said the figure showed a sharp rebound in the oil production after a three-year contraction.
“According to NBS, real growth of the oil sector spiralled upward to 12.11 per cent year on year in Q4 2023.
“This indicated an increase of 25.50 percentage points (highest in the last three years) compared to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 which was -13.38 per cent.
“Growth also increased by 12.96 percentage points when compared to Q3 2023 which was -0.85 per cent.
“By way of production breakdown, the nation, in the fourth quarter of 2023, recorded an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the daily average production of 1.34mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2022 by 0.21mbpd,” he said.
This, according to Akinsiju, is higher than the production volume of the third quarter of 2023, which was 1.45mbpd, an increase of 0.10mbpd.
He added that such had implications for inflow of foreign exchange because the nation depended on crude oil export for more than 90 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings.
“The principal explanation for this impressive crude oil production increase is that the country now has about 30 functioning rigs in its upstream oil and gas sector.
“According to OPEC data, Nigeria’s average rigs count was 11, 7, and 20 in 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively“, he said.
Rig count is a measure of vibrant activities in the oil industry. It also referred to the number of active drilling rigs extracting oil from the ground at a given time.
Akinsiju described rig as an important metric in the oil and gas industry as it provided insight into the level of drilling activity, which could influence oil production levels and market dynamics.
“The draw down from this is that the Tinubu administration must have rolled up its sleeves and went to work to redeem the nation’s problematic crude oil production activities as soon as it was sworn into office.
“It is against the backdrop of the performance of the oil sector as well as the non oil that IMPI envisage further economic growth.
“By our conservative estimation, we can posit that the economy may have survived the most elementally critical stage as it adjusts to the subsidy removal policy and unification of the foreign exchange rates.
“We, therefore, envisage an economic growth trajectory, even in the face of prevailing challenges confronting the economy.
“We are confident of increased GDP growth in 2024, buoyed by the non-oil sector and driven by expansion in the financial sector,” Akinsiju said.
He added that the economic regulations being put in place by government would impact the living standards of the citizens in the months ahead.