CNNNEWs

ON 15 NOVEMBER, 2021

Dr Simon B Harry

PRESS RELEASE!!


NBS Directors and management here present,

Gentlemen of the Press,

Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen,

 

I consider it yet another great honour and privilege to address the Press on the Third Quarter, 2021 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which measures the performance of the economy. Indeed, as you are all aware, the statistics Code of Practice requires NBS to release to the general public statistical information timely and in line with the Data Release Calendar. In the case of GDP, at least 45 days after the expiration of the quarter. Thus, as the National Statistics Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I wish to reiterate the determination of the National Bureau of Statistics to ensure timeliness in the release of all relevant statistical information. In effect, today’s press briefing is in line with NBS renewed determination in recent times to ensure availability of reliable and timely statistics which are necessary for policy-making and business decisions. It is also consistent with the Bureau’sdetermination to ensure that data and the data production processes are properly understood and the results accurately reported in the public domain.

he stated that Accordingly, perhaps, it is pertinent to explain that GDP helps to determine the structure and dynamics of an economy, which by implication measures the performance of the economy within a given period of time. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), has been conducting Establishment Surveys to provide data for the estimation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the country. In 2008, NBS started to improve the GDP series by conducting Quarterly Establishment Surveys (QES) for the four quarters of each year to complement the annual surveys which normally take place in the first quarter of the succeeding year.

Briefing  again her addressed Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of the management and staff of the National Bureau of Statistics, it becomes necessary to explain that the negative GDP figures recorded in 2020 as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic have had serious base effects on the GDP figures for Q2 and Q3 of 2021. You will recall that the contraction of Q2 and Q3 of 2020 hasresulted to positive growth as recorded consecutively for the last three quarters of Q4, 2020; Q1, 2021 and Q2, 2021 with 0.11%, 0.51%, Q2 and 5.01%respectively. This base effects continued to Q3 2021 recording a growth of 4.03%.

It’s therefore most state that the improvement being seen in the output growth over the last four quarters depicts a steady progress made in stemming the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated negative impact on livelihood, well-being, and the economy. Globally, many countries have witnessed an improvement in economic performances compared to 2020 when Covid-19 was endemic. Thus, economic recovery is a gradual process that requires consistent collective efforts to improve economic activities across the institutional sectors: Households, Non-profit Institutions Serving Households, Financial Corporations, Non-financial Corporations and the Government. However, in Nigeria the prospect of full recovery is glaring provided the current trend of improved economic performance is sustained in the rest of the year and beyond. It is important to also mention that annual GDP growth of 2020 stands at -1.92%.

Furthermore the Summary of Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product Estimates

In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N45.11trillion in third quarter 2021. This performance is higher when compared to third quarter 2020 which recorded N39.09 trillion, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 15.41%.  Nominal Gross Domestic Product in the preceding quarter of Q2 2021 stood at N39.12 trillion. In terms of real GDP which shows volume of economic activities, third quarter 2021 recorded N18.54 trillion, higher by N718.57 billion than N17.82 trillion recorded in third quarter 2020. This shows output growth of 4.03% in third quarter of 2021. Moreover, output of third quarter of 2021 was higher by N1.85 trillion compared to second quarter 2021 when aggregate real GDP was N16.69 trillion.

Oil Sector

In terms of oil performance, an average daily oil production of 1.57 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded in third quarter of 2021.  This shows a lower volume compared to 1.67mbpd recorded in Q3 2020 by 0.10mbpd.  Third quarter 2021 daily oil production also shows lower volume compared to the second quarter 2021 production volume of 1.61mbpd. This trend accounts for oil growth rate of -10.73% in real terms recorded in third quarter 2021.

Non-oil Sector

7.Non-Oil sector (which excludes Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas activity) recorded growth of 5.44% in third quarter 2021 in real terms, an improvement from -2.51% reported in third quarter 2020. However, growth rate of Non-Oil sector in second quarter 2021 performed better at 6.74%. Additionally, during thethird quarter 2021, oil contributed 7.49% to Gross Domestic Product from 8.73% contributed in third quarter 2020. Non-Oil accounted for 92.51%, an increase from 91.27% recorded in third quarter 2020.

Fastest growing activities in third quarter 2021

8.Transportation and Storage sector; Financial and Insurance sector; and Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply sector have shown strong growths during the third quarter of 2021. Thus, the fastest growing activities in real terms during the third quarter 2021 GDP estimates were Rail Transport and Pipeline (59.93%); Metal Ores (54.92%); Air Transport (33.31%); Financial Institutions (25.50%); Road Transport (21.11%); Water Transport (16.30%) and Electricity, Trade (11.90) Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply (14.36%). However, some of the slowest growing activities include Oil Refining (-47.83%); Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas (-10.73%); Quarrying and Other Minerals (-4.20%); Coal Mining (-4.20%); Fishing (-3.97%) and Public Administration (-0.15%).

9.While Road usage witnessed high demand in third quarter 2021, growth in rail transportation was occasioned by passengers’ choices to use train as an alternative to road. Similarly, Air travel has increased with the easing of travel restrictions both domestically and foreign.  Wholesale and Retail Trade continues to show strong performance over 2020 when trading activities were largely restricted due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  In addition, there has been an improvement in electricity generation and distribution during the quarter as well as financial services.

10.On the broad sectoral performance, agriculture grew by 1.22% during the third quarter of 2021 in real terms lower than third quarter 2020 which recorded 1.39%. Industry grew by -1.63%, an improvement overthird quarter, 2020 growth of -6.12% and Services accounted for 8.41% growth, also an improvement from -5.49% in third quarter 2020. Agriculture, Industry and Services contributed 29.94%, 20.41% and 49.65% respectively to GDP. In contrast, Agriculture, Industry and Services contributed 30.77%, 21.59% and 47.64% respectively in third quarter 2020. This shows higher contribution of services in third quarter 2021 compared to third quarter 2020. Although the economy has shown steady improvement in the last few quarters, it is hoped that the current trend is sustained with strict adherence to Covid-19 protocols and the new Delta Variant outbreak.

11.In conclusion, I must not forget to say a word of appreciation to our partners in the statistical system for their consistent and unwavering support.  In particular, I wish to thank the media for the important role it continues to play in informing the general public, as well as its continued support for NBS’ data dissemination policy. There is no doubt that the support provided has helped tremendously to improve statistical delivery and usage in Nigeria. In the same vein, I look forward to a credible reporting on the Q3 GDP, 2021 in both electronic and Print Media as well as all social Media Platforms. This is a key strategy that NBS must maintain and promote in herdetermination to ensure transparency and accessibility to data by all Nigerians.

12.       On this note, on behalf of the National Bureau of Statistics and the entire National Statistical System in Nigeria, I wish to declare that based on the authority bestowed on me as the Statistician-General of the Federation, that the nation’s economy grew by 4.03% during the 3rd Quarter of 2021. As usual, NBS remains open to providing further information and clarifications on this important statistical product.